Despite EFFORT & the rural & urban lands grab, TPLF now says it’s all about “fast, equitable & green economic growth”: Whose growth anyways?

4 Jul

Editor’s Note:

    Ethiopia is going down, notwithstanding the hoopla of investors. Otherwise why would the youth flock out of the country, even to face deaths in foreign lands, instead of the humiliation of becoming second class citizens in their country under the ethnicist regime. Recall what has happened to those who were slain by ISIL in Libya, burnt alive in South Africa, Yemen, and elsewhere. The TPLF regime, which masquerades as ‘government’ was mocking at them with mock phone numbers, when they were pleading for help in their distress!

    We have now reached a stage where the economy has lost steam. Nonetheless, there is no winter of profits for EFFORT organizations, business companies owned by the ruling party. From Almeda to Messebo, Sur, to Abergele, etc., each prime in the construction, manufacturing, and processing sectors are raking it good in good or bad seasons. Even international organizations only subcontract TPLF/EFFORT consultancy, accounting and audit companies, not other Ethiopian companies – including United Nations agencies. There is something wrong and that is the reason why the federal budget also has been ending up in TPLF’s coiffeurs.

    How could anyone dare call this national development plan, when it actually is means for the fattening of TPLF companies under a politics that has betrayed the motherland! Read the self-serving articles in the last few months the so-called TPLF intellectuals are pushing into cyberspace to see what these guys are up to!

Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

Source: The Reporter

Ethiopia plans to be top manufacturer in Africa. Accordingly, the second generation of the most talked about Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) that was floated to the public for discussion this week revealed another ambition plan to climb to the top of the continent in terms of manufacturing production in 2025, while meeting its goal of joining the lower tier of middle income countries in the same year.

It is high time that the policymakers put their sheer ambition of economic development on paper and face the public. This week, top government officials, especially those in the Ethiopian Policy Research Institute (EPRI) and Ethiopian National Planning Commission (NPC), are busy defending their fiver year development road-map which they have prepared as the sequel to the GTP I. What appears to be a culture now in the GTP planning is that show of fearless ambition. What about ‘top manufacturer’, perhaps in par with countries like South Africa or Egypt, if not better, for an ambition. To achieve this goal, manufacturing is expected to grow at a fierce speed of 24 percent or more on an annual basis between GTP II years of 2015/16 and 2019/20.

Manufacturing is at the center of the GTP II plan with its relative share of the GDP set to grow from four percent at moment to close to eight percent and later in the years 2025 to 18 percent. The sector role in terms of boosting the country’s foreign exchange earnings is also high on GTP II. According to the draft of the plan which is floated for the public for discussion, the sector is expected to raise USD four billion in export earning annually at the end of the GTP II, which is expected to boost its share from the overall export basket to 25 percent in 2020 and later to 40 percent in 2025. In the GTP II, the export itself is expected to grow by an unprecedented 29 percent, in which output of light manufacturing firms like Leather and Shoes, Textile and Agro-processing would be playing the greater role.

According to Abay Tsehaye, policy advisor to the Prime Minster with a ministerial portfolio, the second generation of the GTP is all about three pillars: fast, equitable and green economic growth. While discussing with the private sector at Addis Ababa Hilton on Thursday, Abay said that the economic growth cannot be fast without equity; and that it cannot be both fast and equitable without being sustainable which is green growth. According to the GTP, the economy would have to grow on average at 11 percent for the coming five years. But, manufacturing is of a special focus for the policymakers. One indication is the sector having its own vision during the GTP II which is attaining and operating on the sectors production frontier or production possibility frontier. This is a level of production at the utmost efficiency and productivity exhausting all its existing resources and technology. Theoretically, this level of production is what individual firms or economies attain when they could no more improve production without raising the cost of production. Industry, which includes construction and mining sectors besides manufacturing, is also expected to grow at 18 percent over the course of the GTP laying the foundation for structural transformation. Abay told members of the private sector that structural transformation through the manufacturing is unthinkable without developing an ‘engineering and fabrication’ capacity of the nation. “Engineering is the capacity to design and fabricate machineries; and that manufacturing could not be sustained,” he said.

Nevertheless, GTP II also recognized the sharp infrastructural deficit to support the anticipated manufacturing growth in the nation. For that, the plan focused on the development of electricity, road, road and telecom and information technology infrastructures. In that regard, the plan seeks to double the overall road and rail network in country. The overall road network is set to grow from 120,000kms to 220,000kms, while shortening the average time required to access an all-weather road would go down from 1.5 hours to 0.8 hours at the end the GTP II.

Rail is also something that GTP looks to be planning to expand massively. For instance, the plan says that all rail constructions which are already underway in the three corridors would be concluded in the plan period. Furthermore, an additional 2,782kms of countrywide rail network that includes 6 new rail lines connecting five corridors will also be started in the GTP period. Power is also another area where GTP II plans to do it big. In the GTP period, the overall power generating capacity of the nation is expected to grow to 17,347MW, including the target set in GTP I which the performance missed by miles.

The plan also details that the total length of electricity transmission lines would grow to 21,720kms at end of plan period from 12,825kms it is at the moment. Furthermore, the IT and telecom is also area the government is planning big. In this regard, cell phone penetration is expected to grow from its current level of 40 million to 103 million, while increasing the overall internet penetration rate to from 3.3 percent at the start of plan period to 10 percent. In terms of broadband network subscription, the current 1.6 million is expected to leap to 3.19 million, while subscription for narrow band internet is anticipated to double from eight to 16 million.

Apart from manufacturing, agriculture especially crop production is expected to rise considerably during the plan period with crop production rising from 207 million metric tons at start of the GTP period to 406 million metric tons. In the period, agriculture is expected to enjoy a modest growth of 8 percent still playing its role in the employment and production.

The plan would also seek to reduce the level of absolute poverty in the nation to 16 percent in the plan period bringing it down from 25 percent at the start of the GTP II. If all goes according to plan, GTP II seeks to kick start a structural transformation on basis of manufacturing. It, of course, goes as far as planning to raise life expectancy of Ethiopians from 64.6 years to 69.
 

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