By Keffyalew Gebremedhin The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)
On April 3, 2016 and a couple of times before that, we defined on this page IPC 3 as a stage in emergency situation when a household group experiences short-term instability. This means the any affected household in this situation would have significant food consumption gaps, the resultant outcome being high or above usual acute malnutrition.
In that article, we noted that it might also be possible for a household group to marginally meet minimum food needs only with irreversible coping strategies, such as liquidating livelihood assets or diverting expenses from essential non-food items.
The fact of the matter is that, at this stage people in areas already smitten by the El Nino-drought in Ethiopia have little else left to put to the market and meet their very essential food needs.
Meher harvests usually reduce food insecurity in Ethiopia for people in IPC3 crises situations. This time around, however, given the current political reality in the country and also where the Kiremt rainfall had been poor in eastern and central Oromia and SNNPR, southern Afar and Shinil, according to FEWS.NET, a picture has emerged that there would be people who would surely experience “average food assistance needs in 2016/17.”
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FEWS.NET forecasts the likelihood of the lowlands of central and eastern Oromia and the Rift Valley in SNNPR facing below-average Meher harvests. In turn, this low agricultural yield, coupled with low income from agricultural labor, is likely to drive poor households into crisis, i.e., IPC Phase 3, between February to May 2017.
Moreover, according to the FEWS.NET update, in southern pastoral areas, below-average October to December rainfall is likely to lead to a substantial deterioration of pasture and water resources. Long-distance migration of livestock and below-average food and income from livestock products will limit houeholds’ food access.
Parts of southern SNNPR and Somali Region will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the pastoral lean season in February and March 2017.
Overall Meher production, the FEWS.NET update anticipates to be near to slightly below average. Performance of Kiremt seasonal rainfall was near or above-average in many areas, although waterlogging has reduced yields in some localized areas.
Expected near-average harvests will support normal food access in many western and northwestern areas of the country, which will be face minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between October 2016 and May 2017.
While families or households in IPC Phase I situation would not experience acute food insecurity, it does not mean that they would not face short-term instability, although they are able to meet basic food needs, without engaging in disruptive coping strategies.
Summing it up, it is important to note that a not so insignificant number of Ethiopians in the above-mentioned areas would find themselves in significant food consumption gaps, whose manifestation, as stated above, is high or above usual acute malnutrition.
Given this reality and the political crisis in the region where the public has given its back to the ruling party, disrupting daily life, the TPLF regime has chosen to tell the public lies to anticipate harvest of 164 million quintals from Oromia region alone. My distrust of the TPLF is strong and in the last year has already skyrocketed, and thus I am compelled to express my misgivings about this ‘harvest claim’ in a twitter message this morning, as follows:
Nevertheless, the combined in-kind contributions altogether taken into account, according to OCHA, the regime’s share is only $272 million in 2015 and $109 million in 2016, as can be gleaned from the OCHA data hereunder:
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God Save Ethiopia!
THE OROMIA HARVEST NUMBERS COME FROM THE CHALK BOAD, NOT ON FARMS, AS CAN BE SEEN FROM THE 1ST STORY BELOW:
Added push factors for Ethiopians escaping death to flee their nation: drought, thirst, hunger & human rights violations; food & water distribution depends on politics & luck – even local media report