Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)
Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)
The ascent of Dr. Abiy Ahmed to the post of prime minster in Ethiopia a year ago was a rare positive story in a year filled with grim news globally. Within months of taking office, his administration released tens of thousands of political prisoners, made peace with neighboring Eritrea, took positive first steps to ensure free and independent elections, and welcomed previously banned groups back into Ethiopia. It was an astonishing turnaround in a short period.
But the progress has created new challenges. Ethiopia’s rapid transition away from authoritarianism unleashed waves of dissatisfaction and frustration that had been crushed by the ruling party for decades. If Abiy (Ethiopians are generally referred to by their first names) can’t maintain law and order and come up with a plan to address the causes of that anger without repressive measures, his country’s considerable gains will be threatened.
There aren’t many success stories around the world as nations transition from authoritarianism to democracy. Ethiopia has a chance to become a model, but it will need significant help confronting its challenges.
There’s no evidence that Abiy’s administration has a clear strategy for addressing these growing tensions.
As Ethiopians have become less afraid of voicing opinions, long-standing grievances have taken on new intensity. Disputes over access to land and complex questions of identity and administrative boundaries have led to open conflicts and score-settling, often along ethnic lines. Dissatisfaction has also been growing over long-standing questions about who gets to govern and manage the rapid growth of the capital, Addis Ababa. The rising tensions across Ethiopia have led to the displacement of more than2 million people since Abiy took office. And as tensions increase, this number is likely to rise.
Social media, meanwhile, has grown in popularity, and it is awash with hate speech. Firearms are flooding into many parts of the country. And local and federal authorities are losing control over security in many parts of the country. It’s a toxic mix with critical nationwide elections coming up in just over a year.
Progress is hampered by the lack of action from Abiy’s government, which has done little to calm inter-ethnic tensions and remedy the underlying issues. And institutions that could resolve such complex grievances are not yet seen as independent enough to address them in a nonpartisan way, following years of ruling party control. And perhaps most worryingly, there’s no evidence that Abiy’s administration has a clear strategy for addressing these growing tensions.
As Abiy’s popularity has waned, so has support for his reform agenda. There is mounting concern that Ethiopia risks becoming ungovernable if conflict and insecurity continue to rise. Some insist that if that happens a return to authoritarianism is the only way to keep the country together. It is not too late for Abiy to turn this situation around and build on the seeds of democracy he nurtured in his first few months in office. But a plan of corrective action, restoration of law and order, and some confidence-building measures are urgently needed from Abiy’s government.
Many Ethiopians living in the diaspora, including in the Los Angeles area, have backed Abiy’s effort at bringing democracy to Ethiopia. Ethiopians living abroad have raised more than $1 million to help some of those displaced by conflict.
Their efforts should be backed by the U.S. and other Western nations who have key long-standing partnerships with Ethiopia, including in the areas of migration, counter-terrorism and economic growth. They need to ensure that Abiy’s experiment with democracy succeeds. Should it fail, there would be dire humanitarian consequences for this country of over 100 million, many of whom protested against bullets and arrests from security forces for years in the hopes of a transition to a more rights-respecting government.
The United States and its allies can best support Ethiopians by continuing to offer praise for the reforms while also asking sometimes difficult questions about how Abiy’s government plans to restore law and order and address underlying grievances, and by determining what role the United States and other allies can play in making this happen. In Abiy, Ethiopia has a leader who, based on available evidence, genuinely wants that transition but may need a helping hand.
The next year is likely to determine how history remembers Abiy — and how democratic principles fare in Ethiopia.
Felix Horne is the senior Ethiopia researcher at Human Rights Watch.
Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)
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Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)
by Kebour Ghenna
Last week my 18 year old niece wanted to know if PM Abye Ahmed is running a developmental or liberal administration.
Not having read Friedrich Hayek, Milton Friedman or understood Leon Walras, Vilfredo Pareto or even Rosa Luxemburg to understand the heart of many economic theories, I was careful not to say stupid stuff.
On a more realistic level we tend to miss that Developmentalism and economic liberalism are two forms of capitalism.
Yes Dear readers, capitalist societies will either be developmental or liberal depending on how they set their major institutions, namely the state and the market. Economic liberalism gives full primacy to an idealized free market, while developmentalism brings into play both state and market (supposedly) in a more balanced way. The two capitalist systems are also based on separate ideologies, one based on the role played by the market and the other on the role of moderate intervention by the state in the economy. You look closely at the two forms and you’ll obviously find many gradations and permutations in commitment to both creeds.
Personally let me confess that I have an ideological bias, and so would like to argue that developmentalism – the one that combines moderate but effective state intervention in production and in the distribution of income – is a more balanced form of coordinating capitalism than economic liberalism, and generates more growth with financial stability. It reflects the needs of aspiring industrializing nations like Ethiopia to catch up with more advanced capitalist economies. It rejects the self-regulating market ideal, and the individualism underlying it, calling instead for cooperative relations among government, business and labor under state leadership to increase substantially the material wellbeing of its citizens while also advancing key political objectives defined by modern societies: national autonomy, social order, individual freedom, social justice and protection of the environment.
On the other side the market is unbeatable whenever there is effective competition because it allocates resources more efficiently. Still the state is supposed to coordinate the non-competitive sector, such as, the interest rate, the inflation rate and the exchange rate, the distribution of income, and the protection of the environment –areas where there is no real competition and where the market fails to deliver.
One more thing, a developmental state is oriented towards social democracy, because it will limit the capacity of the rich to capture the state and buy prestige, political power and privilege. The social-democratic state has no objection to capitalists using their money to buy luxury goods and services but seeks to promote social justice within the framework of a representative democratic polity and a capitalist economy.
Now let me stop and try to reply to my niece.
Between developmental capitalism and liberal capitalism there is a grey area. There are moments when it is difficult to identify the character of capitalism because in some countries governments have turned liberal but the state continues to intervene in the economy.
As I said markets are an excellent institution, but the only thing that they do well is coordinate competitive activities. Given the complexity of the major modern economies, given the existence of non-competitive industries, given the repeated failure of markets to establish the right macroeconomic prices, neoliberalism cannot be a stage of capitalism. It failed in Eastern Europe. It failed in Eastern Europe. It suffered a definitive defeat in 2008 in the West. How could we then view neoliberalism as the best form of capitalism for Ethiopia?
/Source: author’s Facebook
