Tag Archives: conflict

2020 Global conflict & disorder patterns: “reactivated groups cause for heightened risk of mass violence in Ethiopia…”

21 Feb

Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

Editor’s Note:  Separately on Ethiopia since 2019, pls consult ACLED’s: [Ethiopia] At risk of increased fragmentation despite a popular leader)


by Clionadh Raleigh, ACLED Executive Director

Paper presented at the 2020 Munich Security Conference

There is a great range in how states and citizens experience security: in places like Mexico and Burundi, active and latent groups dominate the security environment, while in Iran, Turkey and Ukraine, the level of per capita civilian killing is low, but perpetrated by the same small range of state, and state-associated groups. In countries like Ethiopia and Pakistan, the possibility of high numbers of ‘re-activated’ groups mean that civilians are at a heightened risk of mass violence, should the political environment change suddenly.

In the past 10 years, the world has witnessed a decline in global cooperation and security. This downturn is manifest through multiple internationalized wars and massive humanitarian crises, rising nationalism from global powers, transnational terror organizations using sophisticated recruitment techniques, cyber-attacks orchestrated by marginalized states, sustained levels of violence in nominally ‘post-conflict’ countries, and a drastic rise in the number of non-state violent agents. An intensification of violence and risk has accompanied these notable shifts. Drawing on the ACLED dataset of almost a million political violence and protest events across over 100 countries, we can discern four broad patterns that summarize the current conflict landscape and indicate how disorder is likely to evolve in the future:

(1) Political violence is rising and manifesting as disorder in multiple forms. It is persistent and dynamic, consistently adapting to changing political circumstances and opportunities, rather than dissipating. For these reasons, it is best to understand political violence not as a failure of states, but as a volatile and flexible feature of political systems.

(2) Political violence is rising most quickly in developed states: Russia, Mexico and Turkey are key examples of how specific forms of political violence find an outlet in relatively wealthier states. Continued conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and Afghanistan demonstrate the intractable nature of wars in states with inconsistent government control and capacity across territory. Conflict is most persistent in poorer states, but even in these environments, it is a tool of the powerful, rather than the poor and aggrieved.

(3) The fallout from many externally imposed peace-building and stabilization efforts, forced elections, and corruption is unprecedented levels of militia and gang violence. Rather than a descent into chaos, this trend is tied directly to the domestic politics of states and the economic benefits of conflict. The form and intensity of such conflict adapts to political competition within states. As a result, we should expect a continued rise in militias, gangs and violence across most states.

(4) Finally, demonstrations are increasing drastically — but most peaceful protests have no effect on political structures and elite politics. State security forces continue to intervene violently in protests, and mobs — often hired by politicians — are responsible for a significant and deadly increase of rioting in South Asia and beyond.

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ለማ መገርሣ ሰለኢሕአዴግ ምክር ቤት ስብሰባ የሠጡት መግለጫ

31 Mar

Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)


    ማሳሰቢያ ለአንባብያን

ከኢሕአዴግ ምክር ቤት የተሰጠ ድርጅታዊ መግለጫ

    የአቶ ለማ መገርሣ መግለጫ ኢሕአዴግ ውስጥ ከፍተኛ ትግል መካሄዱን የሚያበሥር የመሆኑን ያህል፣ የኢሕአዴግ መግለጫ ግን ተስፋ የተጣለበትን የአዲስ ጅምር ፍላጎትን ቀርቶ መኖሩንም ምልክት አይሰጥም።

    ይህ የሆነው እንደተለመደው፣ ኢሕአዴግ በተለመደው የሕወሃት አመራር ወደ ተለመደው ሸፍጡ ተመልሶ ነው፣ ወይንስ ሕወሃት አዲሱን ጠቅላይ ሚኒስትር ሳቦታጅ የማድረግ ሥራውን ከወዲሁ መጀመሩ ነው?

    ወንድሞችና እህቶች፣ ይህን ሁኔታ በቀላል የሚወሰድ መሆን የለበትም!

    ሕወሃት ከዚያ ሁሉ መሃላና ሰበካ በኋላ ወደ ተለመደው ሸፍጡ መመለሱ ከሆነ፡ ሃገራችን ከፍተኛ አደጋ ላይ ለመሆኗ እንደምልክት ልንወስደው ይገባል!


Floods destroy meagre crops in Ethiopia’s lush highlands

15 Oct

Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

The worst drought for decades in Ethiopia’s northern highlands has ended, but unusually heavy downpours threaten to ruin crops and exacerbate food insecurity as flash flooding turns roads to rivers and swamps fields Photographs by James Whitlow Delano/USAid

The worst drought for decades in Ethiopia’s northern highlands has ended, but unusually heavy downpours threaten to ruin crops and exacerbate food insecurity as flash flooding turns roads to rivers and swamps fields
Photographs by James Whitlow Delano/USAid via The Guardian

In its latest report, Fews.Net notes that the June to September Kiremt rains have gradually decreased since mid-August, although rainfall totals in most northern and western areas remained above average.
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GAMBELLA UPDATE: ጋምቤላ በአስፈሪ ቀውጢ ወቅት፡ የኢትዮጵያ ችግሮች መበራከት!

3 Feb

Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)


Kiir appeals for African solution to end conflict: What’s African solution?

7 Jul

Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

July 6, 2014 (JUBA) – South Sudan’s president, Salva Kiir, has called on African leaders to take a leading role in the resolution of the crisis which has gripped the young nation since mid-December last year, saying the leadership looks forward to the application of African solutions for African problems.
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AU leaders end 22nd summit in Addis Abeba, without rising above the usual sham and hypocricy

4 Feb

By Keffyalew Gebremedhin – The Ethiopia Observatory

The 22nd summit of the AU had accomplished three tasks. First, the summit either pretended to or tried to discuss how to extinguish the raging fires of conflicts here and there within the region. Of course, conflict in Africa is akin to the summer fires in Australia or North America. Nonetheless, they had to put their emphasis on the Central African Republic and South Sudan.
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Redefining protest in Ethiopia: what happens to the ‘terror’ narrative when Muslims call for a secular state?

23 Oct

By AWOL ALLO and ABADIR M. IBRAHIM – Source: Open Democracy

The early contact between Ethiopia and Islam is romantic. It begins in the days when Islam was a new religion in Arabia and Muslims a persecuted minority. When persecution by their Arab kin became unbearable, early Muslim converts sought and were granted refuge by an ancient Ethiopian-Christian King, an asylum that is depicted spectacularly in Islamic theological history. For centuries to come, when Islamic conquest was expanding in the region and beyond, the Muslim Caliphs returned the favour by not invading the Ethiopian-Christian kingdom in accordance with the prophet’s order to “leave the Ethiopians alone”. After a millennium and a half, the two, conjoined in this unique way, may be on the verge of a monumental turning point in their common history.
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Meles Zenawi’s death brings Ethiopia ‘opportunity for peace’

23 Aug

By Carey L. Biron

Following Monday’s announcement of the death of long-time Ethiopian leader Meles Zenawi, Ethiopian civil society leaders and Western rights groups are characterising the turn of events as an opportunity to heal decades of increasingly stark sectarianism.

“Meles Zenawi’s whole policy was based on short-term interest – what’s good for him, not what’s good for his nation. Today, Ethiopia is more divided today by ethnicity than ever, and that is his fault,” Obang Metho, executive director of the Solidarity Movement for a New Ethiopia, based here in Washington, told IPS.

“I am afraid that a missed opportunity at this crucial point will lead to the total failure of the Ethiopian state,” [Getachew] Begashaw, [a professor of economics at Harper College here in the U.S] said. “Once the situation turns violent, it will be extremely difficult to turn around – we will have another Somalia. And if Ethiopia were to fail, the whole region would be massively affected.”

For all the talk about Ethiopia’s recent economic revival, many warn that this development has yet to reach the vast majority of the country’s population. Instead, much of this wealth – and political power – has been retained by the ruling party and, particularly, by the tiny Tigrayan minority community to which Meles belonged.

Still, others suggest that the remnants of Meles’s regime remain so strong that there is little reason to expect an outbreak of violence anytime soon.

“The ruling party is so dominant that I seriously doubt that there will be internal turmoil. They control 99 percent of the seats at the federal, regional and local levels,” a former U.S. official and Horn of Africa expert told IPS on condition of anonymity.

Read the full article on IPS webpage

Transforming Ethiopia TE

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