Tag Archives: India

2020 Global conflict & disorder patterns: “reactivated groups cause for heightened risk of mass violence in Ethiopia…”

21 Feb

Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

Editor’s Note:  Separately on Ethiopia since 2019, pls consult ACLED’s: [Ethiopia] At risk of increased fragmentation despite a popular leader)

 

by Clionadh Raleigh, ACLED Executive Director

Paper presented at the 2020 Munich Security Conference

There is a great range in how states and citizens experience security: in places like Mexico and Burundi, active and latent groups dominate the security environment, while in Iran, Turkey and Ukraine, the level of per capita civilian killing is low, but perpetrated by the same small range of state, and state-associated groups. In countries like Ethiopia and Pakistan, the possibility of high numbers of ‘re-activated’ groups mean that civilians are at a heightened risk of mass violence, should the political environment change suddenly.

In the past 10 years, the world has witnessed a decline in global cooperation and security. This downturn is manifest through multiple internationalized wars and massive humanitarian crises, rising nationalism from global powers, transnational terror organizations using sophisticated recruitment techniques, cyber-attacks orchestrated by marginalized states, sustained levels of violence in nominally ‘post-conflict’ countries, and a drastic rise in the number of non-state violent agents. An intensification of violence and risk has accompanied these notable shifts. Drawing on the ACLED dataset of almost a million political violence and protest events across over 100 countries, we can discern four broad patterns that summarize the current conflict landscape and indicate how disorder is likely to evolve in the future:

(1) Political violence is rising and manifesting as disorder in multiple forms. It is persistent and dynamic, consistently adapting to changing political circumstances and opportunities, rather than dissipating. For these reasons, it is best to understand political violence not as a failure of states, but as a volatile and flexible feature of political systems.

(2) Political violence is rising most quickly in developed states: Russia, Mexico and Turkey are key examples of how specific forms of political violence find an outlet in relatively wealthier states. Continued conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and Afghanistan demonstrate the intractable nature of wars in states with inconsistent government control and capacity across territory. Conflict is most persistent in poorer states, but even in these environments, it is a tool of the powerful, rather than the poor and aggrieved.

(3) The fallout from many externally imposed peace-building and stabilization efforts, forced elections, and corruption is unprecedented levels of militia and gang violence. Rather than a descent into chaos, this trend is tied directly to the domestic politics of states and the economic benefits of conflict. The form and intensity of such conflict adapts to political competition within states. As a result, we should expect a continued rise in militias, gangs and violence across most states.

(4) Finally, demonstrations are increasing drastically — but most peaceful protests have no effect on political structures and elite politics. State security forces continue to intervene violently in protests, and mobs — often hired by politicians — are responsible for a significant and deadly increase of rioting in South Asia and beyond.

Continue reading

Indian identity is forged in diversity. Every one of us is in a minority

2 Oct

Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

by Shashi Tharoor*

When India celebrated the 49th anniversary of its independence from British rule in 1996, its then prime minister, HD Deve Gowda, stood at the ramparts of Delhi’s Red Fort and delivered the traditional independence day address to the nation. Eight other prime ministers had done exactly the same thing 48 times before him, but what was unusual this time was that Deve Gowda, a southerner from the state of Karnataka, spoke to the country in a language of which he did not know a word. Tradition and politics required a speech in Hindi, so he gave one – the words having been written out for him in his native Kannada script, in which they made no sense.

Such an episode is almost inconceivable elsewhere, but it was a startling affirmation of Indian pluralism. For the simple fact is that we are all minorities in India. There has never been an archetypal Indian to stand alongside the archetypal German or Frenchman. A Hindi-speaking Hindu male from Uttar Pradesh may cherish the illusion he represents the “majority community”. But he does not. As a Hindu, he belongs to the faith adhered to by four-fifths of the population. But a majority of the country does not speak Hindi. And, if he were visiting, say, my home state of Kerala, he may be surprised to realise that a majority there is not even male.

Worse, this stock Hindu male has only to mingle with the polyglot, multicoloured crowds – and I am referring not to the colours of their clothes but to the colours of their skins – thronging any of India’s major railway stations to realise how much of a minority he really is. Even his Hinduism is no guarantee of his majorityhood, because caste divisions automatically put him in a minority. (If he is a Brahmin, for instance, 90% of his fellow Indians are not.)

If caste and language complicate the notion of Indian identity, ethnicity makes it worse. Most of the time, an Indian’s name immediately reveals where he is from or what her mother-tongue is: when we introduce ourselves, we are advertising our origins. Despite some intermarriage at the elite levels in our cities, Indians are still largely endogamous, and a Bengali is easily distinguished from a Punjabi. The difference this reflects is often more apparent than the elements of commonality. A Karnataka Brahmin shares his Hindu faith with a Bihari Kurmi, but they share little identity with each other in respect of their dress, customs, appearance, taste, language or even, these days, their political objectives. At the same time, a Tamil Hindu would feel he has much more in common with a Tamil Christian or a Tamil Muslim than with, say, a Jat from the state of Haryana with whom he formally shares the Hindu religion.

What makes India, then, a nation? As the country celebrates the 60th anniversary of its independence today, we may well ask: What is an Indian’s identity When an Italian nation was created in the second half of the 19th century out of a mosaic of principalities and statelets, one Italian nationalist wrote: “We have created Italy. Now all we need to do is to create Italians.” It is striking that, a few decades later, no Indian nationalist succumbed to the temptation to express a similar thought. The prime exponent of modern Indian nationalism, Jawaharlal Nehru, would never have spoken of “creating Indians”, because he believed that India and Indians had existed for millennia before he articulated their political aspirations in the 20th century.

Nonetheless, the India that was born in 1947 was in a very real sense a new creation: a state that made fellow citizens of the Ladakhi and the Laccadivian, divided Punjabi from Punjabi and asked a Keralite peasant to feel allegiance to a Kashmiri Pandit ruling in Delhi, all for the first time.

So under Mahatma Gandhi and Prime Minister Nehru, Indian nationalism was not based on any of the conventional indices of national identity. Not language, since India’s constitution now recognises 22 official languages, and as many as 35 languages spoken by more than a million people each. Not ethnicity, since the “Indian” accommodates a diversity of racial types in which many Indians (Punjabis and Bengalis, in particular) have more ethnically in common with foreigners than with their other compatriots. Not religion, since India is a secular pluralist state that is home to every religion known to mankind, with the possible exception of Shintoism. Not geography, since the natural geography of the subcontinent – framed by the mountains and the sea – was hacked by the partition of 1947. And not even territory, since, by law, anyone with one grandparent born in pre-partition India – outside the territorial boundaries of today’s state – is eligible for citizenship. Indian nationalism has therefore always been the nationalism of an idea.

It is the idea of an ever-ever land – emerging from an ancient civilisation, united by a shared history, sustained by pluralist democracy. India’s democracy imposes no narrow conformities on its citizens. The whole point of Indian pluralism is you can be many things and one thing: you can be a good Muslim, a good Keralite and a good Indian all at once. The Indian idea is the opposite of what Freudians call “the narcissism of minor differences”; in India we celebrate the commonality of major differences. If America is a melting-pot, then to me India is a thali, a selection of sumptuous dishes in different bowls. Each tastes different, and does not necessarily mix with the next, but they belong together on the same plate, and they complement each other in making the meal a satisfying repast.

So the idea of India is of one land embracing many. It is the idea that a nation may endure differences of caste, creed, colour, conviction, culture, cuisine, costume and custom, and still rally around a consensus. And that consensus is around the simple idea that in a democracy you don’t really need to agree – except on the ground rules of how you will disagree.

Geography helps, because it accustoms Indians to the idea of difference. India’s national identity has long been built on the slogan “unity in diversity”. The “Indian” comes in such varieties that a woman who is fair-skinned, sari-wearing and Italian-speaking, as Sonia Gandhi is, is not more foreign to my grandmother in Kerala than one who is “wheatish-complexioned”, wears a salwar kameez and speaks Urdu. Our nation absorbs both these types of people; both are equally “foreign” to some of us, equally Indian to us all.

For now, the sectarian Hindu chauvinists have lost the battle over India’s identity. The sight in May 2004 of a Roman Catholic political leader (Sonia Gandhi) making way for a Sikh (Manmohan Singh) to be sworn in as prime minister by a Muslim (President Abdul Kalam) – in a country 81% Hindu – caught the world’s imagination. India’s founding fathers wrote a constitution for their dreams; we have given passports to their ideals. That one simple moment of political change put to rest many of the arguments over Indian identity. India was never truer to itself than when celebrating its own diversity.

 

  • Shashi Tharoor is the author of Nehru: The Invention of India, and former Undersecretary-General of the United Nations

/The Guardian

15 Aug 2007

 

 

IMF Lagarde’s Lecture on‘Decisive Action to Secure Durable Growth’

5 Apr

By Keffyalew Gebremedhin The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)
 

Describing the state of the global economy in her well-received Lecture of Tuesday April 5, 2016 at the Goethe University of Frankfurt, Germany, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde set out, without being sufficiently convincing, to assure a concerned populace and governments that “the recovery continues; we have growth; we are not in a crisis.”
Continue reading

የጨርቃ ጨርቅ ኢንዱስትሪው ተስፋ ያደረጋቸው የውጭ ኩባንያዎችና በእንጭጭ ያስቀሩት ዕቅድ – ስለኢትዮጵያ ኢንዱስትሪ ጉዞ ከተነሳ ዘንዳ…

11 Nov

ከአዘጋጁ፡

    ባለቤትነትን የሚፈጥረው የራስ ጥረትና በራስ መተማመን መሆናቸውን ሕወሃት በብልሹ ፖለቲካው ምክንያት ዘንግቶ ዜጎችንም በማዘናጋት ላይ ነው! ለዝርዝሩ ሰሞኑን ዘኢኮኖሚስት (Nov 7th) የተሰኘው መጽሔት ስለኢትዮጵያና አፍሪካ የኢንዱስትሪ አስፈሪ ጉዞ አሰመልክቶ ሰለጻፈው ጉዳይ የሠጠነውን መልስ ይመልከቱ፡-

    Is Africa deindustrializing? The Economist praise of Ethiopia’s manufacturing efforts raises eyebrows

    “If the past is any guide to the present and the future, impetuous as the the TPLF regime has been in this quarter century of exercising state powers, it is in no position to translate these neatly laid out plans [Industrial Development Plan] into action, since the rulers themselves are in need of upgrading and undergoing their substantial transformations.”

    The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

 
Continue reading

Tax fraud by foreign companies in Ethiopia significantly increases: – “ባለቤቱን ካልናቁ አጥሩን አይነቀንቁ!”

7 Sep

Editor’s Note:

Members of the TPLF regime are the first to steal from Ethiopians. Recently a TPLF member was caught at London airport with suitcase full of £5 million pounds and gold. He is expected to face the music in a British court, although Her Majesty’s Government has been rumored to be closing its eyes, when it comes to cash loads from Africa, as The Independent reported in 2009.

Continue reading

Panel names Ethiopia one of top sources for illicit financial flow

15 Feb

Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

    “These outflows are facilitated by the establishment of shadow financial systems such as tax havens, secrecy jurisdictions, disguised corporations, anonymous trust accounts and fake foundations, as well as trade mis-pricing and money laundering techniques,which enrich certain individuals at the expense of the great majority.”

    Illicit financial flows: why Africa needs to “track it, stop it and get it”

A high level panel delegated by the African Union (AU) and chaired by Thabo Mbeki, the former president of South Africa, has found Ethiopia to be among the top African nations in terms of being a source of illicit financial flows (IFFs), most of which makes ways to the developed world.
Continue reading

Juche 104 in Ethiopia: DPRK leader’s New Yr address offers crackpots sense of salvation

19 Jan

Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

Pyongyang, January 18 (KCNA) — A seminar and round-table talks on the New Year address made by supreme leader Kim Jong Un took place in India and Ethiopia on Jan. 11 and 12.
Continue reading

India chooses war with African peoples training armies of oppressive regimes to defend its investments in agriculture

7 Sep

Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)
by Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, The Economic Times

NEW DELHI: India is subtly increasing defence training programmes in friendly countries in southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America, with a global strategic objective.
Continue reading

%d bloggers like this: