Tag Archives: Lebanon

2020 Global conflict & disorder patterns: “reactivated groups cause for heightened risk of mass violence in Ethiopia…”

21 Feb

Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

Editor’s Note:  Separately on Ethiopia since 2019, pls consult ACLED’s: [Ethiopia] At risk of increased fragmentation despite a popular leader)


by Clionadh Raleigh, ACLED Executive Director

Paper presented at the 2020 Munich Security Conference

There is a great range in how states and citizens experience security: in places like Mexico and Burundi, active and latent groups dominate the security environment, while in Iran, Turkey and Ukraine, the level of per capita civilian killing is low, but perpetrated by the same small range of state, and state-associated groups. In countries like Ethiopia and Pakistan, the possibility of high numbers of ‘re-activated’ groups mean that civilians are at a heightened risk of mass violence, should the political environment change suddenly.

In the past 10 years, the world has witnessed a decline in global cooperation and security. This downturn is manifest through multiple internationalized wars and massive humanitarian crises, rising nationalism from global powers, transnational terror organizations using sophisticated recruitment techniques, cyber-attacks orchestrated by marginalized states, sustained levels of violence in nominally ‘post-conflict’ countries, and a drastic rise in the number of non-state violent agents. An intensification of violence and risk has accompanied these notable shifts. Drawing on the ACLED dataset of almost a million political violence and protest events across over 100 countries, we can discern four broad patterns that summarize the current conflict landscape and indicate how disorder is likely to evolve in the future:

(1) Political violence is rising and manifesting as disorder in multiple forms. It is persistent and dynamic, consistently adapting to changing political circumstances and opportunities, rather than dissipating. For these reasons, it is best to understand political violence not as a failure of states, but as a volatile and flexible feature of political systems.

(2) Political violence is rising most quickly in developed states: Russia, Mexico and Turkey are key examples of how specific forms of political violence find an outlet in relatively wealthier states. Continued conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and Afghanistan demonstrate the intractable nature of wars in states with inconsistent government control and capacity across territory. Conflict is most persistent in poorer states, but even in these environments, it is a tool of the powerful, rather than the poor and aggrieved.

(3) The fallout from many externally imposed peace-building and stabilization efforts, forced elections, and corruption is unprecedented levels of militia and gang violence. Rather than a descent into chaos, this trend is tied directly to the domestic politics of states and the economic benefits of conflict. The form and intensity of such conflict adapts to political competition within states. As a result, we should expect a continued rise in militias, gangs and violence across most states.

(4) Finally, demonstrations are increasing drastically — but most peaceful protests have no effect on political structures and elite politics. State security forces continue to intervene violently in protests, and mobs — often hired by politicians — are responsible for a significant and deadly increase of rioting in South Asia and beyond.

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Ethiopia’s mismanaged jobless double-digit growth & repression: A lethal combination of the push factor behind Ethiopian migration

9 Oct

By Keffyalew Gebremedhin – The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

Caption Ethiopian women flocking to the Middle East in search of jobs.

Alem Dechasa, an Ethiopian domestic in Beirut was yesterday’s horrific story of abuses of the collective – domestic workers – by Middle East societies. A Master’s Degree thesis by Nami Belihu Ketema in 2014 at the University of Oregon recalled the following in its introduction about Alem Dechassa, whose abuser and violator of her human dignity Lebanon has hardly cared to seize and apply to him and his accomplices the laws in their book:
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Hypocrisy of travel ban on domestic workers, when the regime tolerates known abuses by foreign firms in & around Addis Abeba

31 Oct

by Keffyalew Gebremedhin – Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory

Sometimes, one cannot help miserably wondering why situations or events seem to conspire against Ethiopia and its citizens – a nation with a young people whose Option One increasingly seems to be fleeing their country by any means and any way possible.
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How reliable is new revelation about Egypt-Sudan plan to sabotage Ethiopia’s Nile dam?

1 Sep

Editor’ Note

    While Egypt and the Sudan had maintained common position in the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), in reality relations between the two sides since mid-2009 have hardly been as strong to enable them carry out joint operations or collaborate for military action against Ethiopia. After all, for a while now the Sudan has been at war with and within itself to manage such undertaking.
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The Ethiopian state, political exorcism, possessed population

2 Jun

By Abadir M. Ibrahim*

As a group, Ethiopian Muslims had been formally marginalized from the Ethiopian mainstream and discriminated against until the demise of the Imperial regime. Although Islam as a religion and Muslims as a group are still at the margins of the political and cultural mainstream, the contents of Ethiopia’s inter-Muslim politics have from time to time spilled into the political mainstream.
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When suicide is the only escape

8 Apr

By Khaled A Beydoun

Washington, DC – For Alem Dechesa, death was the only way out. For thousands of voiceless Ethiopian domestic workers working in Lebanon, suicide is the only avenue for escaping a nihilistic existence.
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Arabsat confirms to Lebanese officials Ethiopia’s jamming of its transmission

16 Feb

The Daily Star

BEIRUT: Preliminary investigations into the jamming of Arabsat satellite transmission shows that it is originating from Ethiopia, Telecommunications Minister Nicolas Sehnaoui said Wednesday, calling on Arabsat’s operator to secure new frequencies for its transmission in Lebanon.
But wait, there’s more!

Ethiopian Airlines refutes ET409 crash report

18 Jan

By Kaleyesus Bekele, The Reporter

The Lebanese Authority blames Pilot for Accident

Ethiopian Airlines strongly refutes the final investigation report released yesterday by the Lebanese Ministry of Public Works and Transport regarding the accident of ET 409 that took place on January 25, 2010. The Airline maintained that the Lebanese Government had been speculating the cause of the accident as pilot error right from the day of the accident contrary to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Annex 13.
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