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2020 Global conflict & disorder patterns: “reactivated groups cause for heightened risk of mass violence in Ethiopia…”

21 Feb

Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

Editor’s Note:  Separately on Ethiopia since 2019, pls consult ACLED’s: [Ethiopia] At risk of increased fragmentation despite a popular leader)

 

by Clionadh Raleigh, ACLED Executive Director

Paper presented at the 2020 Munich Security Conference

There is a great range in how states and citizens experience security: in places like Mexico and Burundi, active and latent groups dominate the security environment, while in Iran, Turkey and Ukraine, the level of per capita civilian killing is low, but perpetrated by the same small range of state, and state-associated groups. In countries like Ethiopia and Pakistan, the possibility of high numbers of ‘re-activated’ groups mean that civilians are at a heightened risk of mass violence, should the political environment change suddenly.

In the past 10 years, the world has witnessed a decline in global cooperation and security. This downturn is manifest through multiple internationalized wars and massive humanitarian crises, rising nationalism from global powers, transnational terror organizations using sophisticated recruitment techniques, cyber-attacks orchestrated by marginalized states, sustained levels of violence in nominally ‘post-conflict’ countries, and a drastic rise in the number of non-state violent agents. An intensification of violence and risk has accompanied these notable shifts. Drawing on the ACLED dataset of almost a million political violence and protest events across over 100 countries, we can discern four broad patterns that summarize the current conflict landscape and indicate how disorder is likely to evolve in the future:

(1) Political violence is rising and manifesting as disorder in multiple forms. It is persistent and dynamic, consistently adapting to changing political circumstances and opportunities, rather than dissipating. For these reasons, it is best to understand political violence not as a failure of states, but as a volatile and flexible feature of political systems.

(2) Political violence is rising most quickly in developed states: Russia, Mexico and Turkey are key examples of how specific forms of political violence find an outlet in relatively wealthier states. Continued conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and Afghanistan demonstrate the intractable nature of wars in states with inconsistent government control and capacity across territory. Conflict is most persistent in poorer states, but even in these environments, it is a tool of the powerful, rather than the poor and aggrieved.

(3) The fallout from many externally imposed peace-building and stabilization efforts, forced elections, and corruption is unprecedented levels of militia and gang violence. Rather than a descent into chaos, this trend is tied directly to the domestic politics of states and the economic benefits of conflict. The form and intensity of such conflict adapts to political competition within states. As a result, we should expect a continued rise in militias, gangs and violence across most states.

(4) Finally, demonstrations are increasing drastically — but most peaceful protests have no effect on political structures and elite politics. State security forces continue to intervene violently in protests, and mobs — often hired by politicians — are responsible for a significant and deadly increase of rioting in South Asia and beyond.

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Ethiopia’s vehicle motorization rate could not escape being simple exposé of nation’s poverty depth; ending TPLF dictatorship growing stronger!

11 Mar

By Keffyalew Gebremedhin – The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

Capitalism is a beast, with characteristic insensitivity. Beautiful as are beasts such as lions or tigers, so also has capitalism its qualities. Entrepreneurs work hard for profit to explore, innovate and flood the market with goods and services.
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Panel names Ethiopia one of top sources for illicit financial flow

15 Feb

Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

    “These outflows are facilitated by the establishment of shadow financial systems such as tax havens, secrecy jurisdictions, disguised corporations, anonymous trust accounts and fake foundations, as well as trade mis-pricing and money laundering techniques,which enrich certain individuals at the expense of the great majority.”

    Illicit financial flows: why Africa needs to “track it, stop it and get it”

A high level panel delegated by the African Union (AU) and chaired by Thabo Mbeki, the former president of South Africa, has found Ethiopia to be among the top African nations in terms of being a source of illicit financial flows (IFFs), most of which makes ways to the developed world.
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Pope Francis appoints Ethiopia’s Mons. Berhaneyesus Demerew Souraphiel, CM, Archbishop of Addis Ababa, Cardinal

4 Jan

By Keffyalew Gebremedhin – The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

Credit: Ethiopian Catholic Church (ECC)

Credit: Ethiopian Catholic Church (ECC)

Pope Francis has appointed 15 new cardinals from countries around the world. Accordingly, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Tonga, Cape Verde, Panama, Spain, Uruguay, Thailand, Mexico, Vietnam, New Zealand, Italy (two) and Portugal have received appointment of their respective citizens as cardinals of the Rome-based Church.
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MINT nations as next economic giants – What happened to Ethiopia with its vaunted growth rates?

8 Jan

Editor’s Note:

    In these two decades, the Ethiopian government has not suffered any shortages of both solicited and unsolicited advices how it should handle a poor country’s economic prospects. Ethiopians are aware that there have been those to whom the future is only green – no matter what. They happened to be convinced that the rising political temperatures and the multi-front macroeconomic problems are surmountable.
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