Tag Archives: Privatisation

የፕላን ኮሚሽነሩ ያሳዩት ግልጽነት ከዚህ በፊት ያልታየ በመሆኑ፣ ይልመድቦት እንላለን

11 Jun

Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

ከፊል ምንጭ: የብድር ጫና እና የውጭ ምንዛሪ ዕጥረት መንግስት የልማት ድርጅቶችን በአክስዮን ለመሸጥ እንዲወስን አስገድድል!

የኢትዮጵያ የብድር ጫና ከፍተኛ ወደሚባል ደረጃ መሄዱና ሃገር ውስጥ ለሚገቡ ምርቶች የውጭ ምንዛሪ እጥረት መከሰቱ መንግስትን የልማት ድርጅቶችን በአክስዮን ለመሸጥ እንዳስወሰነው የብሄራዊ የፕላን ኮሚሽን ተናገሩ።

የብሄራዊ የፕላን ኮሚሽን ኮሚሽነር ዶክተር ይናገር ደሴ እንደሚሉት፥ የሃገሪቱ ኢኮኖሚ በወጭ ንግድ መዳከምና በውጭ ምንዛሪ እጥረት ሳቢያ አደጋ ውስጥ መግባቱ ለውሳኔው ምክንያት ሆኗል።

ባለፉት ጥቂት አመታት ወደ ውጭ ከተላኩ ምርቶች የሚገኘው ገቢ በአማካይ ሶስት ቢሊየን የአሜሪካ ዶላር ላይ ሲቆም፥ ከውጭ ምርቶችን ለማስገባት የሚወጣው የውጭ ምንዛሪ ደግሞ 16 እና 17 ቢሊየን ዶላር ደርሷል።

ከውጭ ለሚገቡ ምርቶች ሙሉ ለሙሉ የሚገኘው የውጭ ምንዛሪ ከተላኩት ምርቶች የማይገኝ መሆኑም፥ ኢኮኖሚውን ጤነኛ አላደረገውም፤ ይህ ደግሞ ሀገሪቱን የእዳ ጫና ውስጥ ጨምሯታል።

የእዳ ጫና፦ የአለም አቀፉ የገንዘብ ተቋም (አይ ኤም ኤፍ) የኢትዮጵያ የብድር ጫና ከመካከለኛ ወደ ከፍተኛ የብድር ጫና እንደገባና፥ የብድር ምጣኔዋም የአጠቃላይ አመታዊ ምርቷን 59 በመቶ መያዙን ይገልጻል።

ሆኖም የኢትዮጵያ መንግስት — በተለይም ሕውሃት — ሃገሪቱ የብድር ደረጃዋ ከከፍተኛዎቹ ይመደባል የሚለውን እስከ ቅርብ ሣምንታት ሳይቀበል ቆይቷል።

የብሄራዊ የፕላን ኮሚሽነሩ ዶክተር ይናገር ግን ሃገሪቱ አሁን ላይ ወደ ከፍተኛ የብድር ጫና ውስጥ እየገባች መሆኑን ይገልጻሉ።

በዚህ ምክንያትና ኢኮኖሚውን ማንቀሳቀሻ ተጨማሪ የውጭ ምንዛሪ ስለሚያስፈልግም ውሳኔው መተላለፉን ገልጸዋል።

ዶክተር ይናገር ለአሁኑ የውሳኔ አስፈላጊነት ጥቂት ቁጥሮችን በማሳያነት ያስቀምጣሉ፤ የሀገሪቱ አጠቃላይ እዳ 26 ቢሊየን የአሜሪካ ዶላር ተሻግሯል።

ይህ ሁኔታ ከሀገሪቱ አጠቃላይ ምርት ጋር ሲታይ አንድም የውጭ ባለሀብቶችን እንዳይመጡ ያደርጋል፥ በሌላ በኩል የባለሀብት መተማመንን ያጠፋል።

የውጭ ምንዛሪ ዕጥረት፦ በሌላ በኩል ሀገሪቱ ለቀጣይ ሁለት አመታት ብድር ለመክፈል ስድስት ቢሊየን እንዲሁም፥ የመንግስት ፕሮጀክቶችን ለሁለት አመታት ለማከናወን ደግሞ ሰባት ቢሊየን የአሜሪካ ዶላር ያስፈልጋታል።

ይህ በመንግስት በኩል የሚፈለግ ሲሆን እንደ ነዳጅና ሌሎች የፍጆታ ሸቀጦችን ማስገቢያና የሁሉም ዘርፍ ሲታይ ደግሞ የሚያስፈልገውን የውጭ ምንዛሪ ፍላጎት እጅጉን ከፍ ያደርገዋል።

እንደ ስኳር ላሉ ፕሮጀክቶች የተወሰደው ብድር ደግሞ ወደ ምርት ሳይገባ እዳ መክፈያው ጊዜ ደርሷል፤ ኮሚሽነሩም እነዚህ ምክንያቶች ተደማምረው የፈጠሩት ችግር ለውሳኔው ምክንያት መሆኑን ገልጸዋል።

ዶክተር ይናገር እንደሚሉት ኢትዮጵያ የውጭ ምንዛሪ ክምችቷን በሚፈለገው ደረጃ ለማስቀጠል ጥረት አድርጋ ቢሳካላትም አሁን ላይ ግን መንገዳገድ ውስጥ በመገባቱ እርምጃው አስፈልጓል።

ሀገሪቱ እዚህ እጥረት ውስጥ የገባችው በግብርናና ኢንዱስትሪው ዘርፍ ላይ የታሰበው ባለመሳካቱ መሆኑን ያነሱት ኮሚሽነሩ፥ እነዚህን ለማስተካከል የረጅም ጊዜ አቅጣጫ ተቀምጧልም ነው ያሉት።

የአሁኑ እርምጃም የአጭር ጊዜ መሆኑን የጠቀሱት ኮሚሽነሩ፥ ኢኮኖሚው በቀጣይ አመታት በወጭ ንግድ አፈጻጸም ታግዞ እንዲቀጥል በተለይም ግብርናውን እና አምራች ኢንዱስትሪውን ለመደገፍና ለውጥ እንዲመጣ አቅጣጫ ተቀምጧል ብለዋል።

ላለፉት አመታት በጥሩ ሁኔታ የመጣውን የሀገሪቱን ኢኮኖሚ በውጭ ምንዛሪ እጥረት ምክንያት ውድቀት ውስጥ እንዳይገባም የአሁኑ ፕራይቬታይዜሽን እንደ መፍትሄ መቀመጡንም አንስተዋል።

Addis Fortune wrote on several occasions about Ethiopia being exposed to massive corruption and courts quietly freezing the assets of some, but not of others — more conspicuous though!

High-level corruption & Ali Suleiman’s anti-corruption fables helped the thieves, not the nation!

Quoting the Auditor-General, Addis Fortune wrote in 2015/16  ‘illegitimate transactions close to 20 billion Br in 158 federal institutions during the 2015/16  fiscal year – over twice that of the gap seen in 2014/15’ was found and reported to parliament.

The Office of Attorney General kicked off an investigation of the institutions which were mentioned for audit gaps and arrested a dozen of individuals alleged for involvement in a corruption case. Given the magnitude of the theft and the individuals caught in the action, they were only given a slap on the wrist.

Recall that even the United States found itself in dilemma. It did not want to throw its ally to the crucifiers, when it established much of the aid it provides for HIV/aids cure was not also spared. On getting wind of this, on January 13, 2013, The Ethiopia Observatory

 (TEO) wrote about US slashing HIV/aids funding to Ethiopia by 79%.

The nation’s universities were also found among the culprits, according to Addis Fortune — the Auditor-General as its alibi.

In 2014-15, among the public universities, the Auditor-General exposed, Addis Ababa University (AAU), which took the lead with an audit gap of 1.2 billion Br. It was followed by Addis Abeba Science & Technology University (AASTU) and the University of Gonder with audit gaps of 472 million Br and 126 million Br, respectively.

Same time, Mekele University also had its share of irregularities in 2015/16, ranging 64 million birr.

In 2015/16, the Auditor-General came up with other shocking reports, according to the Reporter, the sum of which indicated:

“Ten missing cars and more than two billion birr unaccounted for. Lost, undocumented, misused, and damaged public properties. These were just some of the shocking facts revealed in the report of Gemechu Dubiso, Auditor General, on Tuesday in a presentation to Parliament. The concerns raised by Gemechu and the fact that it is getting from bad to worse had MPs irritated. Subsequently, MPs called for swift action” only to prove paper-tigers confronted by the TPLF.

የአሁኑ የኢትዮጵያ የኤኮኖሚና የገንዘብ ቀውስ ምክንያቶች የዕዳ ጫናና የውጭ ምንዛሪ ዕጥረት ብቻ አይመስሉንም!

ለዚህ ነው ባለፈው ሣምንት ኢሕአዴግ ያሣለፋቸውን የሃገር ንብረትና ጥሪቶችን ለሃራጅ ሺያጭ የማቅረቡ ጉዳይ የመጭውን ትውልድ ዕጣ ፈንታ አጉል እንዳያደርገው እሠጋለሁ! !

ውድ ማዕድናትና የውጭ ገንዘቦችን በሻንጣ እያስጭኑ ወደ ውጭ ሃገር ዘመዶቻቸውና ደንበኞቻችችድው ሲያሸጋግሩ የነበሩት እነማን እንደሆኑ የሕወሃት አገዛዝ ያውቃል! ለምን እነዚያ ግለሰቦችና ተባባሪዎቻቸው በዚህ ዐይነት ያሸሱትን ገንዘብ እንዲመልሱና — መንግሥትም ሂሣቡን ካሰላና ከተረከበ በኋላ —ምህረት አይሰጣቸውም?ለምን የኢትዮጵያ አየር መንገድ ብዬ ሳስብ፡ የሕወሃቶች ደባ እንዳይሆን እሠጋለሁ!

እግራቸው ገና አዲስ አበባን እንደረገጠ ነበር የኢትዮጵያን አየር መንገድ ከነስሙ ጭምር ስለጠመዱት፣ ‘የአፍሪካ ቀንድ አየር’ እንዲባል ሃሣብ እንደነበራቸው እስከ ኒውዮርክ ድረስ ይወራ እንደነበር አስታውሳለሁ!

ወደብ ያሣጧትን ሃገር የአየር በረራ ቢነሷት ያስገርማልን?

የመጀመሪያው አፈጉባዔ ያመጡት ታሊባንነት ነው የሚሉ የሕወሃት አፈ ቀላጤዎችን አባባል መስማቴንም አስታውሳለሁ!

ውዱና ድንቁ ቴዲ አፍሮ አለምክንያት እኮ አይደለም “ኢትዮጵያ” በተሰኘው አልበሙ፡የሚከተለውን ያንጎራጎረው፡-

የሰለሞን ዕጽ ነሽ የቅዱሳን ዕንባ ያበቀለሽ ቅጠል
ዛሬ አዲስ አይደለም በለኮስው እሳት የነካሽ ሲቃጠል…

Ethiopia loosens throttle on many key sectors, but privatization still far off

6 Jun

Posted by The Ethiopia Observatory (TEO)

“However, unless implemented with skill, knowledge and focus,” Abiy [Ahmed] said, “it can lead to a repeat of the pervasive theft seen in many African countries and a destruction of Ethiopia’s wealth.”

ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) Ethiopia’s decision to sell stakes in its lucrative telecoms monopoly and other assets could open one of the world’s largest untapped markets to huge potential investments by firms willing to work with a government still wary of private enterprise.

The stake sales are part of a raft of measures announced by Abiy Ahmed, a young former army officer who became prime minister in April, saying a new start was necessary to end crisis and chaos in a country of 100 million people, where some 40 percent are aged under 15.

While some fear Ahmed is moving too fast to challenge entrenched interests in his ruling EPRDF coalition, there is also hope across the region that his reforms will help ease crippling unemployment, foreign currency shortages and poverty.

The stake sales were announced on Tuesday, the same day Ethiopia said it would implement a 2000 peace deal with neighboring Eritrea and cede disputed territory on the border it has occupied for nearly 20 years[L5N1T75WX].

Companies have been waiting in the wings for Ethiopia to open its state monopolies and Tuesday’s news was welcomed.

South Africa telecoms group MTN told Reuters that it was excited by the potential opening up of the Ethiopian market “as it would be a natural fit for MTN’s existing pan-African footprint.” 

South African peer Vodacom said, “Vodacom has said on many occasions that Ethiopia is an attractive market so it follows that there would be interest. Naturally this is dependent on what might become available and if it fits within our investment parameters.”

It is unclear whether the government would consider licensing foreign mobile operators. Interest might be limited if the only option is a minority stake in the monopoly.

Analysts have said the government’s move falls far short of enabling full competition by multinationals. They note that by selling minority stakes the EPRDF is underscoring its view that the state should be a key player in the economy.

But the step is still radical for the EPRDF, in power since it took over from the communist Derg regime in 1991, and could indicate how 41-year-old Abiy plans to steer the country.

The economic reforms come two months after Abiy took power promising political changes to address roiling anger among young people over ethnic marginalization and unemployment.

The invitation to private investors to take shares in state companies including highly profitable Ethiopian Airlines is an acknowledgment the public sector alone could not provide adequate jobs or push export earnings higher, said one Addis Ababa-based analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“There is a realization that you might need the private sector’s help,” he said.

In a statement issued Tuesday evening after a day-long meeting, the EPRDF’s executive committee said it recognized that economic reforms needed to be taken to sustain economic growth that has averaged near 10 percent for the past decade.

The statement referenced foreign exchange shortages that are draining shops of goods that suppliers cannot access hard currency to import. Foreign reserves are estimated by economists to cover less than two months’ of imports.

ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION

The government has poured earnings from the national flag carrier and Ethio Telecoms into its infrastructure projects, part of an ambitious strategy to transform an agrarian nation into an industrialized one where the manufacturing sector provides large export earnings.

More revenues are needed, government spokesman Ahmed Shide told reporters after the coalition’s announcement.

Calling state-owned corporations a “huge source of wealth”, Shide said allowing private investors to buy shares “will enable us to generate even more wealth through them”.

But the morning after the premier himself suggested that, while the reforms are necessary, they come with risks.

“It is progressive. This new economic decision will afford us the opportunity to resolve widespread unemployment, ease foreign currency shortages, and reduce weaknesses in market connectivity,” Abiy said on Wednesday.

“However, unless implemented with skill, knowledge and focus,” Abiy said, “it can lead to a repeat of the pervasive theft seen in many African countries and a destruction of Ethiopia’s wealth.”

“The government is still deeply skeptical about capitalism and ‘speculative investors’”, said Charlie Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital, an emerging market investment bank.

Despite being Africa’s fastest growing economy, Ethiopia is a poor nation where GDP per capita is less than $800 per year and affordability of items like a smartphone is low.

The stakes sales also raise the question of what the government will do with the exchange rate. Foreign investors will want an easily convertible local currency. The Ethiopian birr is overvalued by at least 15 percent, according to the black market spread.

Still, there is undoubtedly huge untapped potential in the market given its size and under-served population, said Jacques Nel at research group NKC African Economics.

“Ethiopia remains a difficult place in which to do business, with inadequate infrastructure and opaque regulatory requirements, while the government remains deeply involved in most facets of the economy,” Nel said. “Foreign investors will still have to contend with these challenges.”

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